This study asks whether exposure to physical climate hazards is reflected in the stock returns and operating performance of Iranian listed firms. The sample comprises 92 non-financial companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange over the Persian years 1395–1404 (2016/17–2025/26), linking climate measures at disclosed factory locations to financial statements and market data. Rather than collapsing exposure into a single index, the analysis treats heat, drought and local rainfall separately and decomposes each realised exposure into an expected component, built strictly from pre-target-year information, and an unexpected remainder. Estimation uses firm and year fixed-effects models with lagged controls, while inference relies on null-imposed wild cluster bootstrap tests (999 replications) with pre-specified Holm and Benjamini–Hochberg corrections. Aggregate exposure bears little relation to contemporaneous or forward returns. Several hazard-level coefficients are nominally significant, yet none of the 30 tests survives correction at 10%. The expected–unexpected contrast is more informative: the difference is suggestive for revenue under drought and heat and for ROA under local rainfall, with the drought–revenue comparison the only one below 10% under both Holm and the false discovery rate. The findings give no support to a uniform hazard-level effect, but indicate that the predictability of exposure may matter for operating outcomes. The paper contributes a hazard-specific, expectation-aware framework for climate-risk research in an emerging market simultaneously exposed to substantial political and macroeconomic shocks.